Results are flowing in as the electoral process continues. So far only one state has verifiably declared a victor for the presidential election, Ekiti State for Bola Tinubu. This years election race has three viable contenders: Mr Tinubu (APC), Mr Abubakar (PDP) and Mr Obi (LP). Each candidate draws support from different regions in Nigeria making predictions difficult. For the first time ever in Nigeria’s nascent democratic history there are three front-running candidates, introducing the possibility of a ‘backdoor’ victory where one wins fewer than four zones but still secures the constitutionally required 25% across two-thirds of Nigeria’s states.
As of the writing of this article, according to Stears:
Tinubu (APC): 1,715,595 votes
Abubakar (PDP): 976,519 votes
Obi (LP): 770,450 votes
(https://www.stears.co/elections/2023/president/)
Aggregate voting tallies do not represent probable electoral victory.
As of the writing of this article an alternative source (cited below) has published that:
Tinubu (APC): 1,911,340 votes
Abubakar (PDP): 1,283,415 votes
Obi (LP): 526,884 votes
Currently Mr Tinubu is leading in 12 states, Mr Abubakar is leading in 7 states and Obi is leading in 4 states. These figures are not final as the vast majority of votes have yet to be collated and tallied. Below is an electoral map illustrating the tallied votes and regions where the counting and collation continues.
(https://www.stears.co/elections/2023/president/)
Mr Tinubu mainly draws his support mainly from the highly populated South-west of Nigeria. His political stature pervades across Nigeria as well. As illustrated above the South-west region has counted the votes in a more expeditious manner, giving him an early lead. Mr Abubakar has strong support, extrapolating from his campaign, in the North/North-east. Mr Obi has the strongest support in the South/South-east, where some elections were postponed due to insecurity. The election is still entirely open and results are expected on February 27th, though final results will most likely be announced on Wednesday March 1st.
Sources
