2023 was a year of record exposure to extreme heat in Europe, thus becoming the major public health concern, with high temperatures surpassing 47,000 deaths. As stated in a study published in Nature Medicine and led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, this grim statistic marked the year as globally the warmest on record and the second warmest in Europe. This is an alarming trend, the continuation of a pattern of rising temperatures hitting the continent, especially in southern Europe.
A study by ISGlobal estimated that more than 47,000 people across Europe died due to heat in 2023. Although this figure shows a grim toll, it is lower than the more than 60,000 deaths documented during the very hard summer of 2022, which continued to experience extreme temperatures from mid-July to mid-August. The 2023 death toll, according to the data, is the second highest since these statistics began to be tracked in 2015, underlining how frequently and harshly these heatwaves are striking Europe now.
The methodology of the study was based on the use of temperature and mortality data from 823 regions, covering 35 European countries, for the period between 2015 and 2019. This data was used to model heat-related mortality across Europe for the whole of 2023. Indeed, while 2023 did not have such a long spell compared to 2022, it still experienced two key events during medium to high temperatures in mid-July and late August. These two heatwaves alone accounted for over 57% of the annual heat-related mortality, with more than 27,000 deaths during these periods.
Southern European countries generally bore the brunt of the heat, with Greece at 393 deaths per million topping the list of nations. Bulgaria, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, and Portugal completed the list of the most heavily hit nations. This concentration of deaths underpins southern Europe’s high vulnerability to extreme heat because of regionally-driven climate trends, social economy, and demography.
It also brings out clearly the vulnerability of certain segments of the population, in particular, women and the elderly. According to data, the heat-related mortality rate among women was 55 percent higher compared to men. This difference probably results from a mix of factors relating to physiology, socio-economic roles, and pre-existing health complications in women that may predispose them to devastating extreme heat exposure.
Moreover, there is an increased risk in people at an older age, particularly above 80 years. The researchers are, therefore, arguing that individuals above the age of 80 were 768 percent more likely to die from heat-related death compared to the ones whose age ranged between 65 and 79 years. This is such a shocking figure, requiring prompt interventions since most elderly citizens are likely to be predisposed due to common health complications, limited mobility, and social isolation.
One of the most critical aspects of the research is its focus on the role of societal adaptation in reducing the toll from rising temperatures. The researchers calculate that if the adaptation measures taken over the past two decades were to be taken away, 80% more deaths from heat could have occurred in 2023. This would be more than 85,000 deaths, with the brunt of it borne by older populations.
The societal adaptations to extremely hot weather conditions have been ranging and wide, embracing public health activities as well as personal behavioral changes. For instance, in the aftermath of the devastating summer of 2003, more than 70,000 deaths were recorded in Europe alone that were solely attributed to extreme heat; thus, many countries ushered in early warning systems and heat prevention plans. These have been greatly effective in alleviating the vulnerability of populations against extreme heat. It finds that the “minimum mortality temperature”—the temperature at which the risk of death is lowest—has shifted from 15°C during the early 2000s to 17.7°C during the period from 2015 to 2019. This shift would indicate a reduced vulnerability of Europeans to heat, as socioeconomic conditions, healthcare, and public awareness improved.
But although these adaptations have certainly saved lives, they are by no means a magic bullet. The lead author of the research, Elisa Gallo, maintains that the number of deaths from heat is still too high and shows no signs of reducing, with Europe’s warming trend accelerating. Gallo explains that Europe is warming at a rate twice that of the global average; therefore, current adaption efforts, though useful, might not suffice to combat extreme temperatures expected in the future.
These authors of the study, though very comprehensive, nevertheless warned that figures presented in this research probably underestimate real burden of mortality from heat in 2023. Much of this is because it must rely on weekly mortality data from Eurostat rather than more granular daily records. Weekly data, though okay for general trends, obscure the acute impact of short-term extreme heat events that can lead to underreporting of deaths due to heat.
A recent paper in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe from the same group described the problem, saying that it can be very large when using weekly data. This bias has been corrected in this latest study by the same researchers, who estimated that the real number of heat-related deaths in 2023 was about 58,000, rather than 47,690 officially reported by the authorities. This finding puts in the limelight the need for much more fine-scaled and accurate mortality data so that one can have a better assessment of the impacts of extreme heat and hence do public health interventions more effectively.
Societal adaptation was an effective tool in keeping heat-related mortality at bay; however, it also underlined limitations within adaptation itself in mitigating the challenge of climate change. There are physiological and societal limits as to just how much further adaptation can prevent the developing world’s vulnerable populations from suffering and dying due to extreme heat events in a world where temperatures are rising because of global warming. According to Joan Ballester Claramunt, Principal Investigator of the European Research Council’s EARLY-ADAPT project, though, the window for effective action is rapidly closing with the 1.5°C threshold enshrined in the Paris Agreement probably being overshot before 2027.
Ballester Claramunt underscores the need for a two-pronged approach: one of adaptation but equally of a sturdy mitigation in reducing GHG emissions, not to reach critical temperatures that may behave as tipping points. Indeed, without mitigate-effect, even the most perfectly laid-out plans for adaptation will fail when extreme heat events become more frequent, intense, and widespread.
To these ends, the research team from ISGlobal has developed a web-based tool, Forecaster.health, that predicts mortality risks due to heat and cold for 580 regions in 31 European countries. It provides early warnings differentiated by gender and age and incorporates epidemiological models adjusted to calculate real health risks in different groups of the population. These tools are very instrumental in sharpening responses in public health and assuring timely and effective protection against extreme weather events for the vulnerable populations.
The results of the ISGlobal study are of high relevance not only to the European region but to health worldwide. Under an intensified climate change, such conditions are soon to prevail in other parts of the world, too; in this regard, extreme heat becomes an emerging health threat. Experiences from Europe will be able to impart valuable lessons for other regions Front Row on the need for proactive adaptation and the requirement for inclusive policies on climate that effectively take into consideration both mitigation and adaptation measures.
It also underlined the fact that all climate-related health risks are very much interconnected. Extreme heat does not lead to direct heat-related death but can also aggravate underlying chronic health conditions, increase the spread of infectious diseases, and trigger medical emergencies like heatstroke. This multidimensional impact underlines the fact that one has to consider the integration of climate considerations into broader health policies and strategies to ensure that health systems are resilient to the challenges brought forth by a warming world.
Indeed, as this study makes crystal clear, now is the time to act. Millions of people’s health and well-being in Europe and indeed the world depend on whether we can rise to the challenge of climate change and build a resilient and sustainable future ahead.
SOURCES
- https://www.thecable.ng/study-europe-recorded-over-47000-heat-related-deaths-in-2023/amp/
- https://www.euronews.com/health/2024/08/13/europes-rising-temperatures-contributed-to-47000-deaths-in-2023-new-study-finds
- https://www.preventionweb.net/news/heat-caused-over-47000-deaths-europe-2023-second-highest-burden-last-decade
